Risk Assessment and Mitigation Frameworks

Theory and Practice Overview of Risk Assessment & Mitigation

Paddle Canada instructors must be literate in risk management. Choosing to take a chance or risk is inherent in all paddle adventures. We assess what we’re willing to risk in return for a derived benefit. It’s fun to paddle!

The instructor’s responsibility is to teach students effective ways to assess and manage risks and to weigh them against the benefit. Training and mentored experience can reduce exposure and vulnerability. With each level, the teaching becomes more comprehensive with hazards identified and managed in increasingly complex environments.

What is Risk?

Risk is defined by the Oxford English Dictionary as, “Exposure to the possibility of loss, injury, or other adverse or unwelcome circumstance; a chance or situation involving such a possibility.”

Risk can also be looked at as, “the probable frequency and probable magnitude of future loss”.

Common Terms

Hazard

A level of threat to life, health, property, or environment. Hazards exist in the environment (for example, cold water, wind, waves or rocks)

Danger

The possibility of suffering harm or injury. Dangers are subjective or human variables (for example, lack of training or skill, poor judgment or fatigue)

Risk

Loss, injury, or other adverse or unwelcome circumstance. Risk is the actual harm or loss that could occur (for example, breaking a bone, hypothermia or damaging your kayak)

Frequency

How often something is likely to happen.

Severity

How life altering or catastrophic an incident would be.

Exposure

The length or duration of interaction with a hazard.

Mitigation

Changing plans to reduce exposure/severity of interaction with hazard.

Risk Assessment Formula

Hazard x Exposure = Risk (for example, if there are big waves, but you stay on shore than there’s no risk.)

Tool Kits for Risk Assessment & Mitigation

The following are tools or resources for your use for teaching about risk assessment from the initial planning process through to the activity and reflection afterwards. They all have their strengths and shortcomings, and so awareness of their advantages and limitations is critical and should be taught in a progressive way as you move students through the different skill and instruction levels.

Global Check

Group

Your body & your buddy. Check for: energy/skill level, experience and emotional/physical preparedness.

Environment

Check the terrain (for example, safe landing options), sea-state, wind, time constraints, and dangerous conditions.

Equipment

Check boat or board, paddling and safety gear, food/hydration, protective clothing.

Time and Optimism Bias

These two hazards are the most likely ones to cause harm. The urge to “get there” can override clear judgment and is often clouded by an inflated ego. This occurs in conjunction with decisions based on “optimism bias”, or in other words, “it won’t happen to me!”

Challenge by Choice or Safety Veto

Students must be taught how to assess not only their personal limits but also those of their peers. A perceived risk can turn into a real risk as stress levels increase. If an individual decision is made not to participate due to a safety concern, the group must support this. More importantly, this “safety veto” must be vigorously applied to the entire group, as responsibility for safety extends to everyone. Plans can be altered to accommodate the concern and still provide benefit to the rest of the group.

To ensure the safety veto will work, it’s critical that a new group of paddlers talk about it beforehand with all members agreeing to its principles.

James Raffan’s Lemon Model

James Raffan’s Lemon Model is an effective tool and can be extended to a more sophisticated look at risk assessment. The theory is based on the idea that, in the outdoors, accidents are rarely caused by a single catastrophic event but rather a chain reaction of smaller incidents or ignored risks that add up and ultimately lead to a crisis or major incident.

Each time we choose to engage with risk in the outdoors, you can compare it to pulling the lever on a slot machine. The wheels turn and every unattended “risk” results in lemons appearing in the slot machine windows. The more lemons, the greater the probability of an accident occurring. The bigger the risks, the bigger the lemons that can be expected.

While the goal is to mitigate or eliminate lemons, there will always be some, so the key is recognizing when they are growing in both number and/or size. Many paddlers return home with no idea of how many were spinning away while they paddled, and how close they came to an accident.

The lemon model is one most students can easily apply and recommended for introduction levels but can also be incorporated with other models for intermediate or advanced programs.

Red/Yellow/Green

We often use the term “red flag” when referring to a specific hazard and that means STOP. In the context of assessing engagement with hazards, we consider:

• Red = No go
• Yellow = Caution, we need more information
• Green = Go

Consequence and Probability

Risk can be further assessed in terms of consequence and probability. High consequence/high probability risk is the strongest red flag or no go. Even with low probability, a strong caution is advised. A low consequence risk is acceptable, particularly with low probability of exposure.

Environment Transitions

Anytime there is a transition from one environment or trip phase to another, the chances of an accident dramatically increase. Leaders on the water need to be aware of the transition and be prepared for a possible incident.

Examples of environment transitions in the context of a day trip include, unloading kayaks off cars, moving kayaks from land to water, getting into a kayak, paddling around a headland, crossing the boundary into a surf zone, landing at a beach and finally, lifting boats from ground to top of cars.

Dynamic Energy Check

All paddling groups will change in their feeling of well-being and energy levels over time, so it is important to track this throughout the day. A simple method is to circle the group up and ask everyone to show their energy level by holding the number of fingers up (1 being low energy and 5 being the best day of their life).

A single check means very little, but with several checks throughout the day you can get a sense of the trends within the group. When a participant starts to decline over time it can signal an approaching problem to the rest of the group.

Decisions can flow from the check-in to prevent a potential accident or first-aid situation from occurring. Note, an energy check must include attention to possible hydration decreasing as this is a common precursor to accidents.

CLAP

CLAP is a popular framework for peer leadership while on the water.

Communication

Keep your group close enough together that you can communicate effectively via voice, hand or paddle signals or electronic means (for example, VHF radio).

Line of sight

Keep the group together and do not let students get out of sight (this is especially common when going around headlands or bends in a river).

Avoidance of hazards (if possible)

While not all hazards are avoidable, we can mitigate or choose the less risky option to avoid potential incidents. You should maintain situational awareness and pay attention to the world around you to identify hazards and make conscious choices to expose yourself or not to them.

Position of most effectiveness

This refers to the physical location on the water that the leader will take in relation to a danger or to the most useful location if an incident were to happen.

Learn more about CLAP.

ALPACA

ALPACA is another on-water leadership framework that’s built on the CLAP foundation.

Awareness

Paddlers must become aware of the environment surrounding them and constantly maintain that awareness. Use all your senses to engage and maintain awareness.

Line of Sight

You need to be able to see the group always in order to know what is happening. You also need to be seen by others.

Position of Maximum Effectiveness

Place yourself where you can be helpful during an emergency, which could happen at any time. This applies to both leaders and followers.

Avoid Hazards

Be aware of hazards and identify any to the group if they could be a problem.

Communicate

Establish a communication framework with your group prior to heading out on the water.

Assessment

Did the communication get the desired effect? Go back to Awareness and start again. Have we moved positions? Do we need to move to a better place? Are there new hazards?

SAFE – Successful Incident Management

1. Stop: Take a breath
2. Assess the situation – Are there other risks to me, the rest of the group or to the victim?
3. Formulate a Plan – Which re-entry method is most appropriate to this situation? What’s the longer-term plan to deal with problems to the victim, group or gear?
4. Execute and Evaluate the Plan

More information: British Canoe Union Coaching Handbook published by Pesda Press.

Other Risk Assessment and Mitigation Resources

Risk Assessment & Safety Management (RASM): The Complete Risk Management Model for Outdoor Programs

Hazard identification, risk assessment and risk control

A Tale of Two Schools – Reflections on Risk Management

Managing Risk: Systems Planning for Outdoor Adventure Programs

Other Approaches to Safety